Arise Television presenter Rufai Oseni has cautioned Nigerians against assuming that the outcome of the recent Osun State governorship election will be repeated during the 2027 general elections.
Oseni made the remarks while assessing the political implications of Governor Ademola Adeleke’s re-election and the growing debate over what the result could mean for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of 2027.
The broadcaster argued that the circumstances surrounding a state governorship election are different from those of a nationwide presidential contest. He warned that political actors who interpret the Osun result as evidence of an easy path to defeating the APC in 2027 could be making a serious miscalculation.
“If you think because Osun people stood up, it will be easy in 2027, you are delusional,” Oseni reportedly said.
His comments have drawn attention amid renewed discussions about the strength of opposition parties and their ability to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the next presidential election.
Adeleke retained the Osun governorship after securing 511,067 votes, while APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji polled 444,815 votes. The result gave the incumbent a margin of 66,252 votes.
The Osun outcome has been interpreted by some opposition supporters as evidence that the APC can be defeated despite its political influence and national structure. However, Oseni’s assessment suggests that the dynamics of the presidential election will be considerably more complex.
The 2027 contest will involve voters across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, with factors such as presidential candidates, party alliances, regional interests, voter turnout and campaign strategies likely to influence the result.
The Osun election therefore provides political parties with useful lessons on voter mobilisation and grassroots engagement, but it does not necessarily determine the outcome of the presidential race.
As preparations for 2027 gather momentum, Oseni’s warning highlights the need for political parties and their supporters to distinguish between state-level electoral victories and the much broader challenge of winning a nationwide presidential election.
