Abuja, Nigeria — June 2026
Nigeria’s security crisis continues to rank among the country’s most pressing national challenges, with available data showing persistent violence across successive administrations despite repeated government assurances and military operations.
Analysis of figures from the Nigeria Security Tracker (NST), a project maintained by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), highlights the scale of the crisis and provides insight into how insecurity evolved under former President Muhammadu Buhari and his successor, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Understanding the Nigeria Security Tracker
The Nigeria Security Tracker was established to document and map incidents of political violence across Nigeria and, where relevant, neighboring countries affected by Boko Haram activities.
Using weekly surveys of local and international media reports, the tracker monitored fatalities arising from insurgent attacks, communal conflicts, clashes involving security forces, banditry, and other forms of politically or socially motivated violence.
Security experts have often described the NST as one of the most comprehensive open-source databases on violence in Nigeria. However, its managers consistently emphasized that the figures were indicative rather than exhaustive due to underreporting, inaccessible conflict zones, and varying media accounts.
The database tracked incidents from May 29, 2011, but ceased updates on July 1, 2023, shortly after President Tinubu assumed office.
Buhari Years Marked by Massive Violence
NST data paints a sobering picture of insecurity during President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure from 2015 to 2023.
According to the tracker, non-state actors were responsible for approximately 31,821 deaths during the period. Annual fatalities fluctuated significantly, reaching a peak of 10,575 deaths in 2021, one of the deadliest years recorded by the database.
Several factors contributed to the violence:
- Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgency in the North-East.
- Escalating banditry across the North-West.
- Farmer-herder conflicts in the North-Central region.
- Communal clashes and criminal violence in multiple states.
Some broader assessments incorporating additional categories of violence have placed the cumulative death toll during Buhari’s administration at over 60,000 fatalities.
While Buhari’s government achieved notable military successes in reducing Boko Haram’s territorial control during its early years, critics argue that insecurity evolved rather than disappeared, spreading into new forms and regions.
Tinubu Administration Faces Continuing Crisis
Because the NST stopped collecting data shortly after President Tinubu took office, analysts have relied on other security-monitoring organizations to assess current trends.
Available reports from organizations such as ACLED, SBM Intelligence, HumAngle, and CDD West Africa suggest that insecurity remains widespread.
Recent estimates indicate that between 10,000 and 17,000 people may have died in conflict-related incidents during the first two to three years of the Tinubu administration, depending on methodology and reporting scope.
One report from CDD West Africa documented 5,768 deaths in the first half of 2025 alone, underscoring the continuing severity of the crisis.
Security concerns under the current administration include:
- Persistent jihadist attacks in the North-East.
- Rising banditry in the North-West.
- Mass kidnappings and ransom-driven criminal networks.
- Farmer-herder conflicts.
- Communal violence and separatist-related incidents in some regions.
Mass abductions, particularly involving schoolchildren and rural communities, have become one of the most visible manifestations of insecurity during this period.
Comparing Two Administrations
Experts caution against simplistic comparisons between Buhari and Tinubu due to differences in tenure length, available datasets, and the changing nature of violence.
Nevertheless, several patterns emerge:
Buhari’s administration recorded a significantly higher cumulative death toll due to its eight-year duration and several years of exceptionally high fatalities.
Tinubu’s administration, although shorter, continues to record alarming levels of violence according to ongoing trackers, with no definitive evidence of a structural decline in insecurity.
The character of violence has also evolved. Whereas insurgency dominated earlier years, kidnapping-for-ransom and organized banditry have become increasingly sophisticated and economically motivated.
Structural Causes Remain Unresolved
Security analysts continue to point to deeper structural drivers of insecurity, including:
- Widespread poverty.
- Youth unemployment.
- Weak governance institutions.
- Corruption.
- Illegal arms proliferation.
- Poor border management.
- Ungoverned rural spaces.
These underlying factors have allowed violent groups to recruit, expand, and sustain operations despite repeated military offensives.
Human and Economic Consequences
Beyond the statistics lie devastating human consequences.
Thousands of families have lost loved ones, millions have been displaced from their homes, schools have been forced to close, agricultural production has been disrupted, and investor confidence has been affected.
Communities across affected regions continue to endure trauma, uncertainty, and economic hardship as violence persists.
Conclusion
The Nigeria Security Tracker remains an important historical resource for understanding the trajectory of violence in Nigeria up to mid-2023. Subsequent data from ACLED, SBM Intelligence, HumAngle, CDD West Africa, and the Global Terrorism Index suggest that the country’s security challenges remain deeply entrenched.
While debates continue over whether insecurity was worse under Buhari or Tinubu, available evidence points to a broader reality: Nigeria’s security crisis predates both administrations and remains unresolved.
Experts maintain that lasting progress will require more than military operations. Sustainable solutions will depend on governance reforms, economic inclusion, justice sector improvements, stronger intelligence capabilities, and a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes of violence.
Until such measures are implemented effectively, millions of Nigerians will continue to bear the burden of one of the country’s most enduring national emergencies.
