By Our Editorial Board
Nigeria’s prolonged insecurity crisis remains one of the gravest threats to national stability, economic growth, and social cohesion. Despite successive administrations promising decisive action, millions of Nigerians continue to live under the shadow of terrorism, banditry, kidnappings, communal violence, and armed criminality.
An examination of available data from respected conflict-monitoring organizations, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), SBM Intelligence, the Nigeria Security Tracker (NST), and the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), paints a troubling picture: while the nature of violence has evolved, the suffering of ordinary Nigerians has remained relentless.
Buhari Era: Eight Years of Escalating Violence
Former President Muhammadu Buhari came into office in 2015 on the promise of restoring security and defeating insurgency. While his administration achieved some early gains by reclaiming territories previously occupied by Boko Haram insurgents, the overall security situation deteriorated in several regions.
During Buhari’s eight-year tenure, Nigeria witnessed the rapid expansion of banditry across the North-West, persistent farmer-herder conflicts in the North-Central region, and continued jihadist attacks in the North-East.
Available security data indicates that tens of thousands of Nigerians lost their lives during the period. Various estimates place security-related fatalities between 59,000 and 63,000 deaths. Some of the deadliest years occurred between 2021 and 2022, when violence reached alarming levels across multiple regions.
Kidnapping-for-ransom became a multi-billion-naira criminal enterprise, targeting schoolchildren, commuters, farmers, traditional rulers, and religious leaders. Entire communities were displaced as criminal gangs established control over forests and rural territories.
Although military offensives occasionally recorded tactical victories, many Nigerians felt the government was losing the broader battle for public safety.
Tinubu Administration: Continuity of a National Emergency
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu inherited an already fragile security environment in May 2023. Nearly three years later, evidence suggests that while some tactical successes have been recorded, the broader crisis remains unresolved.
Independent conflict trackers continue to report thousands of deaths annually. Fatalities remain high across several regions, while kidnappings have become increasingly organized and economically driven.
Particularly alarming is the resurgence of mass abductions involving schoolchildren. Reports indicate that hundreds of students have been kidnapped in multiple large-scale incidents since 2023.
SBM Intelligence data shows thousands of Nigerians abducted within the first two years of the Tinubu administration, with billions of naira demanded as ransom by criminal groups.
Meanwhile, the Global Terrorism Index 2026 reported a significant increase in terrorism-related deaths, driven largely by renewed activities of Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters in parts of the North-East.
Security experts also note that violence has become more geographically dispersed, affecting communities previously considered relatively safe.
Comparative Assessment: Different Administrations, Similar Outcomes
Comparing both administrations presents significant challenges due to differences in tenure length, conflict dynamics, and reporting methodologies.
However, several observations stand out:
Buhari’s administration recorded a substantially higher cumulative death toll because of its eight-year duration.
Tinubu’s administration continues to experience high annual fatality rates despite inheriting the crisis.
Kidnapping and ransom-related crimes have become more sophisticated and widespread under the current administration.
Neither government has achieved a decisive breakthrough capable of fundamentally changing Nigeria’s security trajectory.
Citizens continue to bear the heaviest burden through loss of lives, displacement, school closures, economic hardship, and psychological trauma.
The Human Cost
Beyond statistics are shattered families, abandoned farmlands, closed businesses, orphaned children, and communities trapped in fear.
Across Nigeria, millions of citizens remain vulnerable to attacks by terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, and other armed groups. The consequences extend far beyond immediate casualties, affecting food security, education, investment, and national development.
Every major attack further erodes public confidence in government institutions and deepens frustration among citizens.
Addressing the Root Causes
Security analysts consistently argue that military operations alone cannot solve Nigeria’s insecurity crisis.
Long-term solutions require:
Strengthening governance and accountability.
Reforming the justice system.
Creating economic opportunities for young people.
Tackling poverty and social exclusion.
Improving intelligence gathering and border security.
Addressing the proliferation of illegal arms.
Expanding community-based security initiatives.
Enhancing cooperation between federal, state, and local authorities.
Without addressing these structural drivers, tactical victories are unlikely to translate into lasting peace.
Editorial Conclusion
As of mid-2026, insecurity remains one of Nigeria’s most devastating national challenges.
The evidence suggests that while Buhari presided over years of massive cumulative violence and Tinubu continues to grapple with persistent and evolving threats, neither administration has delivered the transformational breakthrough Nigerians desperately seek.
The debate should therefore move beyond partisan blame and focus on measurable outcomes, accountability, and evidence-based solutions.
For millions of Nigerians living under constant threat, the central question is not whether insecurity was worse under Buhari or Tinubu. The real question is when Nigeria’s leaders will finally deliver the safety, stability, and peace that citizens deserve.
Until then, insecurity remains a national tragedy and a collective governance failure whose costs are paid daily by ordinary Nigerians.
