The recent defiant remark credited to — “even Tinubu can’t arrest me” — has been interpreted by many political observers as more than personal bravado. In the current climate, it reflects a deeper and more contentious debate about power, authority, and legitimacy under President as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections.
The Legitimacy Debate
Since the 2023 election cycle, sections of the political opposition and civil society have persistently questioned the strength of Tinubu’s electoral mandate. Legal battles, public protests, and claims of irregularities—particularly around result transmission—created a perception gap between constitutional declaration and popular acceptance. While the courts affirmed the outcome and institutional processes validated the presidency, political legitimacy is not sustained by legal rulings alone; it is reinforced by public trust, transparency, and performance.
Critics argue that when a significant segment of the electorate feels alienated from the process that produced a government, that government must work doubly hard to rebuild confidence. Any perceived suppression of dissent, internal party marginalization, or aggressive posture toward influential political actors tends to revive questions about the depth of that legitimacy.
Power Versus Consent
El-Rufai’s statement, therefore, resonates symbolically. In a system where authority is widely accepted, enforcement institutions operate with minimal controversy. But in an environment where legitimacy is contested, even routine investigations or security actions can be interpreted as political vendettas. The louder the rhetoric, the clearer the signal that elite cohesion is weakening.
Legitimacy in democratic theory rests on three pillars:
- Procedural legitimacy – Was the process credible?
- Performance legitimacy – Is governance delivering tangible improvements?
- Moral legitimacy – Does leadership reflect fairness, restraint, and national inclusion?
Opposition voices contend that weaknesses in electoral transparency—especially the refusal to mandate real-time electronic transmission of results—have eroded procedural confidence. Economic hardship and persistent insecurity, they argue, challenge performance legitimacy. Meanwhile, perceived centralization of power fuels debate about moral authority.
Internal Fractures and 2027 Calculations
The open boldness of a former governor publicly challenging presidential authority suggests shifting political calculations ahead of 2027. It signals that fear of executive dominance may be diminishing among certain power blocs. In political systems where legitimacy is unquestioned, such statements would be politically suicidal. In systems where legitimacy is debated, they become rallying points.
However, it is equally important to note that constitutional legitimacy remains intact. President Tinubu occupies office through a legally recognized electoral and judicial process. Nigeria’s institutions—however imperfect—have not collapsed. The distinction lies between legal authority and popular confidence.
The Risk of Escalation
If legitimacy concerns are not addressed through transparency, inclusive governance, and credible electoral reforms, rhetoric could harden into instability. Democratic systems thrive when dissent is managed through institutions rather than confrontation. If citizens perceive that political competition is being constrained, the 2027 elections may become more polarizing than corrective.
Ultimately, legitimacy is not a fixed possession; it is a renewable contract between leaders and the governed. It must be reinforced through visible fairness, economic relief, security gains, and institutional reforms—especially around electoral transparency.
El-Rufai’s remark, therefore, is less about personal immunity and more about a broader question echoing across Nigeria’s political space: does power currently rest on unshakeable consent, or is it operating under continuous contestation?
As 2027 approaches, how that question is answered—through reform or resistance—will shape the stability and credibility of Nigeria’s democratic future.
